Now that pesky presidential election is all out of the way except for the wailing and wringing of hands, it's time to get on to the most important event of the week: the Bands of America Grand National Championships. This spectacular competition kicks off in Indy bright an early Thursday morning, starting a process to whittle the approximately 100 entries down to a single band who earns the right to proclaim itself as the best in the nation for the next 363 days.
For me, the best of 2016 may alway have an asterisk behind it - at least in my own head - because two true power houses won't be on hand vying for the title. The defending national champion - Broken Arrow, OK - is skipping in Indy in favor of a trip to the 2017 Rose Parade in just a few short weeks. Flower Mound, TX - although winner of the tough San Antonio super regional and ranked at the top by HornRank.com - won't be competing in Indy either.
Still, there will be no shortage of truly fantastic bands. As a distraction from the 2016 U.S. presidential election results and the resulting hateful commentary that has filled my social media feeds today, I've chosen to focus on work today as much as possible.I'd be lying, however, if I didn't admit that the prospect of tomorrow's band championship kick-off has been calling my name.
So, it's time for me to get my predictions in order. This is my personal equivalent of a March Madness bracket or following the World Series My predictions are little more than my personal yearly challenge for myself to see if I know anything at all about marching bands on the national level. Last year, 11 of my 12 finalist predictions made semi-finals and seven made finals. I am not always that prescient. Otherwise, I'd be lying on a beach drinking a frozen beverage courtesy of my lottery winnings! No .... wait ... I mean I'd be having dinner in Indy before getting a good night's sleep at a hotel near Lucas Oil Stadium, dreaming of 3 more days of marching competition!
The top five bands in 2016 I believe most likely will be:
Avon, IN
Tarpon Springs, FL
Leander, TX
Carmel, IN
Ronald Reagan
Ronald Reagan
At this point, my money would be on Avon to take it all, but you can never ever count out Texas, especially The Woodlands. Both Tarpon Springs and Carmel have won the big title in the last few years, so they are perennial threats. At the end of the day, it's a band competition which means anything could happen.
The Illinois band most likely to make finals is Marian Catholic. The dominant band in Illinois for more than 30 years, MC has the longest tenured finals appearance record of all high school bands in the nation, making finals more than 30 years in a row! They slipped into the bottom third of finals' placings last year, but, after a slow start this year, they are finishing strong. Although I am still not a fan of what Marian Catholic does, I can't deny their vaunted place in history. They can clean and finish like no other band in Illinois.
The list of other Illinois bands providing the Grand Nationals experience for their members reads like a who's who for the best ensembles in the state. Most finished well in finals at ISU .... Morton, Lake Park, Lincoln Way, and Lockport. And, tiny Herscher is going (someone please tell me still how they are marching 1A in Illinois) and so is Murphsyboro and Limestone - a band I think is outstanding and pretty underrated.
But, if I had to pick just one Illinois band other than Marian Catholic to make the semi finals in Indy, I'd go with O'Fallon Township. In fact, I'd go out on a limb to say OTHS is THE best band in Illinois over Marian Catholic right now. But I have no doubt I am in a tiny minority on that opinion.
I am happy to see New Philadelphia, OH marching in Indy. In a time when marching band has progressed far afield from the early days of BOA, it's nice to see bands like the Marching Quakers or Marian Catholic still hanging around from the early 1980s.
I am also curious about the high school from Fort Mill, SC and wonder is that a growing program courtesy of sharing a hometown with Carolina Crown?
No matter my list of favorites or my love of an underdog, the list of bands I am going to go out on a limb to say will make semi finals.....
Avon, IN
Tarpon Springs, FL
Leander, TX
Carmel, IN
Blue Springs, MO
Vista Murietta, CA
Wm Mason, OH
Marian Catholic, IL
O'Fallon Twp, IL
Vandergrift, TX
Ronald Reagan, TX
Wando, SC
Franklin, TN
Hebron, TX
Owasso, OK
Union, OK
Ben Davis, IN
Lake Central, IN
Homestead, IN
Claudia Taylor, TX
Am also going to add these couple, although I think they could be hurt by their very early initial go on Thursday morning....
North Hardin, KY
Clovis West, CA
Dobyns-Bennet, TN
Some small schools will make semi-finals because of class placement but I can't even begin to really predict them.... maybe Archbishop Alter ....very likely Adair out of KY. I just don't know the small schools that well and their scoring is always, always, always a crap shoot.
Who will final? Part of this is easy-peasy and part of it's a gamble for me to predict. Once you narrow things down to the top 15-20 bands in the country, figuring out the top 5 seems easy enough (although positions within the top 5 could easily shift) but predicting #6-12 is tough. So ... my finalist predictions in no particular order are:
Avon, IN
Tarpon Springs, FL
Leander, TX
Carmel, IN
Wm Mason, OH
Marian Catholic, IL
Blue Springs, MO
Vista Murietta, CA
Owasso, OK
Hebron, TX
Homestead, IN
Wando, SC
Ronald Reagan, TX
Wando, SC
Ronald Reagan, TX
Who will win? I'd be most likely to put my money on Avon. But, I don't think you can count out some of the top Texas bands or Tarpon Springs.
We will find out late Saturday night.
And, then, it's time to be depressed until the indoor season starts early in 2017. Only Macy's and the Tournament of Roses Parade can keep any marching band fan from sinking into total depression come Sunday morning.
Only 123 days until I get to head to Ireland to watch my current favorite high school marching band make some appearances on an international stage. And .... only about 32 weeks until the 2017 Drum Corps season kicks off!
